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August
2009
Welcome to the second
issue of the Research Team's newsletter. We
have summarised in one place all the relevant
statistics, trends and tourism insights that we
monitor, research and analyse. If you have missed
the other issues of TourismTrendSpotter please
click
here to view them. We would welcome any
feedback you might have so that we can develop
this newsletter into a communication you will use
and value.
Best wishes,
Main
Sections:
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Tourism Stats
Monitor
Domestic trips in the first three months
of 2009 have declined across all trip types, although holiday travel was less
affected than business or people visiting friends and relatives (VFR).
Spend has declined the most amongst holiday travel and VFR trips,
indicating people are spending less while on holiday. The number of
inbound visitors to the UK was down while total spend remained
constant in nominal terms. Most visitors' currencies are going
further with each visitor
spending more on average. Less UK residents are travelling abroad
for their holidays.
*VFR = visiting friends and
relatives
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Tourism News
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SPECIAL UPDATE: Swine Flu
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International travel could fall 60% if swine
flu spreads further
The swine flu pandemic could see
international travel collapse by up to 60%
if 30% of the UK population contract the
virus, according to a new economic
forecasting report by Oxford Economics. The report
concludes:
"While the UK economy should
in principle be able to cope with a swine
flu pandemic, there is a significant risk
that the pandemic triggers a set of
unfavourable behavioural changes that tip it
into deflation." ..."A flu
outbreak in the autumn would hit just as the
economy starts to recover from the credit
crunch."
Source: 23 July 2009
www.travelweekly.co.uk
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Travel agents keep pandemic in
perspective
Travel agents are determined to keep the
severity of swine flu in perspective,
despite the prominence of the pandemic in
the national media this week.
Agents reported
few cancellations or calls from concerned
customers, they are however aware the situation
could change at any time.
"I think they realise the media
has over-hyped it big time, from the day
when it was reported that Mexico had over
1,000 deaths, and it ended up being 33."
Britaly
Travel, based in Peterborough, has not
received one call from customers about swine
flu.
"Swine
flu has highlighted the importance of taking out
insurance and the benefits of travelling
with a tour operator and a travel agent."
Sunvil had just received their first
enquiry from one of the 1,000 customers they
handle each week, who wanted to know what
the operator would do if she were
quarantined in Greece.
"We've
had no questions so far, even though it's
been in all the media. But from our point of
view, it is worrying, because it's been a
bad year anyway. If [swine flu] stops people
spending that will be even worse."
Millington Independent, based in Leicester.
"We
expected a deluge of calls but haven't had
any. We have made sure the team gets
constant updates on the situation so they
know what to say if customers do call." Scottish miniple Barrhead
Travel had not had not yet received any calls from
concerned customers in their Glasgow shop .
Source: 23 July 2009
www.travelweekly.co.uk
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Opinion: Travel and swine flu? Take a dose
of common sense - Simon Calder, Travel Editor, The Independent
22 July 2009
'Airlines will ban swine flu suspects',
announced the front page of the Sunday
Times; the following day The
Times picked up the theme on its front
page: 'Airlines to turn away 'swine flu'
passengers - sneezing tourists will need a
doctor's note to fly'.
This is the last thing that millions of
British families needed to hear as they
prepare for their much-deserved holidays.
The headlines invoke images of masked health
workers on duty at check-in, taking
travellers' temperatures and interrogating
suspects about their fitness to travel.
In fact, what British Airways and Virgin
Atlantic are doing is what they - and most
other carriers - have always done:
discreetly observing passengers prior to
boarding for signs of poor health. They do
this partly because of the high cost of
medical diversions, and partly because of
the risk that a contagious disease could be
passed on to other travellers or cabin crew.
But at a time when airlines are doing
everything they can to lure passengers on
board, they are not about to start demanding
a 'fit to travel' note from passengers who
are at risk from swine flu.
Source: 22 July 2009
www.travelweekly.co.uk
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Ryanair
grows passenger numbers with lower fares
Low-cost
airline
Ryanair has also bucked the trend seen by
many rival airlines by reporting a net
profit of €136.5m for the quarter to June
30, up by 550% from €21m for the same three
months last year. Total revenues were €776.9m, barely changed
from the same quarter last year, as the 11%
rise in passenger numbers to 15m was offset
by a 13% decline in average fares.
Ryanair has shown that
it is capable of attracting more passengers
onto its flights by reducing its fares.
Numbers relating to general travel patterns
suggests that demand can be stimulated by
price, or at least that price-sensitive
customers will continue to travel at the
correct price.
Ryanair admitted that the increase in
profits was “distorted” by a 42% reduction
in fuel costs. But also other costs, such as
marketing and distribution costs, also fell.
Ryanair said part of this reduction was down
to “the increased focus on internet based
promotions.”
Source: 28 July 2009
www.travolution.co.uk
+
www.e-tid.com
UK hotel occupancy and rates still suffering
UK hotel room yields, rates and occupancies
declined in the first six months of the
year, according to preliminary figures from
consultancy company PFK.
And while June occupancy levels started to
increase again, by 1.4% up on June 2008, the region is still
suffering.
“The figures for June show that more cities
were able to achieve either an increase, or
smaller decrease, in occupancy than
experienced hitherto, which is a positive
sign. Most hoteliers are struggling to
maintain historical room rates, however, and
this is ultimately depressing rooms yield
for the time being.” Robert Barnard,
Partner for Hotel Consultancy Services at
PKF
Source: 27 July 2009
www.travelmole.com
Stephen Broome, a director at
PricewaterhouseCoopers, warned that swine
flu could easily upset the trend.
“The uncertainty caused by the acceleration
of swine flu cases, coupled with the
forecast strengthening of the pound, means
hoteliers should resist the temptation to
start raising room rates. Any hiking could
easily upset the current balance that exists
between both value-seeking London tourists
and hoteliers alike.”
Source: 27 July 2009
www.thisislondon.co.uk
Staycation set to temporary strengthen the
caravan holiday market
A third of consumers polled by PwC have
chosen a 'staycation' over a domestic or
overseas trip this summer.
The survey of more than 2,000 people shows
that consumers no longer rank holidays and
short breaks as their top two spending
priorities, as they did last year.
Camping and caravan sites are benefitting
from the squeeze on consumer spending and
the weak pound, said PwC. The caravan
holiday market is expected to show modest
growth from 2009 to 2012.
However, PwC director Guy Gillon said its
success is just a reaction to the recession.
"It is vital the market should not
over-estimate the structural shift to
camping and caravanning. It is a cyclical
and not structural shift in the market."
Source: 27 July 2009
www.travelweekly.co.uk
+
www.e-tid.com
Britons on a 'staycation' are in for a shock
as day-to-day living is pricier in Britain
Britons holidaying in
the UK in 2009 in the belief that their `staycation´
will save them money are in for a shock. The
survey, by Teletext, reveals that a standard
shopping basket of holiday items costs more
in the UK than in any other popular holiday
destination. Those taking a break in the UK
will have to fork out £71.33 a day in total
for such items as meals out, drinks and
postcards. This is one of the highest
figures in Europe and compares unfavourably
with the best value holiday destinations
Source: 26 July 2009
www.dailymail.co.uk
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Consumer Trends
Travel Navigator reveals consumer holiday
behaviour
UK bookings are running
ahead of overseas bookings with a marked shift
towards UK options over overseas ones, according to
figures revealed in Travel Navigator, a national UK
holiday survey asking people about their travel
plans and booking intentions over the next 12 months.
Other insights from the
survey include:
UK trips account for
approximately half of all holidays booked for the
next three months. However the true benefit from
people planning more UK holidays, the Staycation, is
being somewhat dampened by the wider impact of the
recession.
Low consumer confidence and security will have a
major constraint on current expenditure (and to an
extent, planned expenditure) for many people and
will therefore delay expenditure on items such as
holidays. This is reflected in the widely reported
growth of late bookings with approximately 50% of
all bookings being made online.
Source:
Arkenford’s Travel Navigator June 2009
(n=1600 survey of UK residents)
Online
travel sector must work harder to compete
for customer loyalty
A recent eTravel Benchmark indicates online travel sites need to look
beyond the 'wow' factor and work harder at
improving the entire end to end website
experience if they are to build trusted,
long term relationships that encourage
customers to buy from them time and time
again.
Holidays are still important but … Consumers
are changing their holiday plans for 2009 in
light of the credit crunch:
 Down grading ‘star ratings’
Taking fewer weekend
breaks
Looking at all inclusive deals, DIY
packages and cruises
Spending less
while on holiday
Consumers are shopping around for a good
deal and value for money
Travel consumers have never had so much
choice …
They are increasingly comfortable in a multi
channel environment and will ‘bounce’
between the high street, online and
telephone
Being unable to make telephone contact and
conflicting information between channels is
a source of dissatisfaction
Over 90% of travel consumers surveyed
complete their initial travel research
online
Online is the preferred method of
both researching and booking travel for the
majority, while some customer groups are
returning to the high street
Choosing a travel provider ...
1st - Price is the main factor when
considering who to book a holiday with, 2nd - Reputation is the second most
important factor impacting confidence to
purchase, and 3rd - Convenience is less important but
elements such as itineraries, departure
dates and location are taken into
consideration
(An eMysteryShopper survey was conducted
during June 2009 to compare the usability of
18 leading UK travel websites. 360 surveys
were completed 20 per site.)
Source: 28 July 2009
www.eDigitalResearch.com
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Market
Trends
England's Northwest
- Tourism Volume & Value
Typically day visitors
represent the majority of visitor days and
expenditure – most notably so in Cheshire. The
exception is Cumbria where staying visitors
represent the majority of visitor days (63%) and
revenue (72%).
In Cumbria and Lancashire, with significant
non-serviced accommodation supply (reflecting their positioning as
holiday destinations), these groups are much more
significant – in Cumbria they account for 30% of
sub-regional expenditure.
Revenue Per Capita
On average all tourism revenue across the region
equated to an income of £2k per head of population
in the region per year.
Revenue per capita was highest in Cumbria and lowest
in Merseyside.
The pattern was more marked when one looks at
revenue accrued through commercial accommodation
(which excludes SFR and day visits). Cumbria at
£1632 per capita was nearly 2½ times the regional
average and 5½ times the Merseyside figure.
Source: NWDA
England's Northwest: Tourism Volume & Value
2007
Overseas holidays to
bounce back by 2011
Market research body Key Note is predicting a
post-recession bounce back for sales of overseas
holidays and a fall in domestic holiday bookings by
2010 or 2011. Its Market Assessment 2009 report
Holiday Purchasing Patterns predicts long-term
trends of increasing overseas holiday sales and
declining domestic holidays will quickly be restored
after the recession. It also concludes that there
will be an overall fall in the number of trips
taken, but a rise in value.
For this year, however, Key Note predicts an
increase in the overall number of holidays taken,
from 120 million trips in 2008, to 121 million in
2009, because of more affordable breaks,
particularly in the UK. These figures refer to all
trips being taken by UK holidaymakers.
"Domestic holidays will be a
substitute for overseas holidays. However, the
long-term trend in the market will be quickly
restored, meaning the upward trend for holidays
abroad will be resumed in 2010 or 2011, where there
could be a strong 'bounce-back' from 2009, as
consumers realise they regretted not going abroad
for a long holiday the previous year."
From 2010, it forecasts a steady annual increase in
overseas trips, to 46 million by 2013 - a growth of
7%. At the same time it predicts a gradual decline
in domestic trips, to 72 million by 2013 - a decline
of 7.7%. Likewise, spend on overseas trips will go
up, to £28.5 billion by 2013 (a 16.3% rise), and the
value of domestic trips will fall to £14 billion (a
6.7% fall).
Overall, by 2013, the number of holidays taken will
fall by 2.5% from 121 million in 2009, to 118
million in 2013, according to Key Note, while the
overall value of all trips taken will increase by
7.6% from £39.5 billion, to £42.5 billion.
Source: 8th July 2009
www.TravelWeekly.co.uk
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Tourism Innovation
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Cannon hosts workshops in national
parks
Letting photography buffs try its
latest cameras in undeniably
photogenic settings, Canon has
paired up with national parks and
conservationists for ‘Canon
Photography in the Parks’. The
programme combines a competition
with a series of free photography
workshops at four national parks in
the USA.
Read More > |
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Hotel finder distils reviews from
across the web
Good hotels can be hard to find, but
not for lack of candid advice. The
sheer number and dispersed nature of
reviews on the web are what can make
the process difficult, and that's
where Raveable comes in. Zeroing in
more narrowly than the likes of
TripAdvisor, Raveable aims to
provide a comprehensive view of
hotels across the United States by
aggregating and summarizing millions
of reviews from sites far and wide.
Read More > |
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Slovenia airport sends tourist info
via Bluetooth
At the baggage claim area of Jo˛e
Pučnik Airport in Ljubljana,
Slovenia, travellers can pick up
more than just their luggage. Using
the Bluetooth feature on their
mobile phones, they can download
tourist information and coupons for
their stay in Slovenia. Through a
campaign devised by the Slovenian
Tourist Board, arriving passengers
are invited to receive information
about Slovenia including tips for a
hassle-free stay, recommended
tourist attractions and events, and
mobile coupons from partner
organizations.
Read More > |
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Cumbria Tourism Research
NEW - UKTS 2008 – Cumbria and England
The United Kingdom Tourism Survey (UKTS) is
a national consumer survey measuring the
volume and value of tourism trips taken by
residents of the United Kingdom. The survey
covers trips away from home lasting one
night or more taken by UK residents for the
purpose of holidays, visits to friends and
relatives, business and conferences or any
other purpose. Tourism is measured in terms
of volume (trips taken, nights away) and
value (expenditure on trips).
During
2007 and 2008 the number of visitors to
Cumbria from the North West increased by
17%. The North West region accounted for
over a third (41%) of Cumbria’s domestic
staying visitors in 2008.
Although
cars are used by the majority (74%) of
domestic visitors travelling to Cumbria the
number using the train has doubled from 3% in
2005 to 6% in 2008.
During
2005 to 2008 camping in Cumbria has been
consistently more popular than in the rest
of England amongst domestic visitors. In
2008 7% of domestic visitors to Cumbria
camped compared to only 3% of domestic
visitors to England.
NEW - June Business Survey
As well as biannual telephone surveys
with 500 businesses during October and
April, we started monthly email surveys at
the end of 2008 to monitor the impact of the
credit crunch. We find that the information
we get from the monthly email surveys tends
to be more pessimistic as a rule. However,
as they are based on a smaller, less
representative sample (171 in this case)
than the telephone surveys (500) they are
treated as interim information only.
Key findings for June include:
Almost
half of businesses report profits down for
June (48%), putting a halt to the
increasingly positive trend seen during
previous months, and also going against
forecasts. Almost twice as many businesses
experienced reduced profits year-on-year
than anticipated.
Optimism
for the rest of the year which had improved
to 78% during May is back down to 68% - as
it was in April.
So
far the overall response by tourism
businesses suggests that the various changes
in consumer behaviour as a result of the
economic climate are having a negative
effect. For each month of the year more
businesses report a negative impact than
report a positive one, with the exception of
May when this was equally divided. Once
again, reports had been showing improvement
but have taken a step backwards for June.
Tourism
businesses are being very proactive,
investing in marketing, advertising,
facilities and customer service.
Unfortunately they are also having to take
financial actions such as offering special
deals and promotions and reducing prices -
all of which impact on profit.
At
the start of the year up to a quarter of
tourism businesses reported that they were
facing trading difficulties. At the end of
April this had improved to 14% and by May
stood at 7%. For June this is back to 12%.
A
couple of emerging trends include an
increase in 'top end' sales of both food and
drink and luxury accommodation, the
favourable exchange rates for overseas
visitors bringing positive benefits, and
also an increase in last minute bookings (a
trend borne out by our self catering
surveys) often at a time when heavy
discounts are being offered.
To access any of these reports please
contact us.
Research Update
2009 Visitor Survey
QA Research have been commissioned to carry
out our county-wide visitor survey this
year. 1,500 visitors will be interviewed
around the county between June and
September. More than 70 interview locations
have been chosen, designed to capture a
representative sample of our visitors. In
addition a further 750-1,000 visitors will
complete a mini-survey. We are also
targeting international visitors
specifically, through self-complete surveys,
200 of which will be interviewer-led, and a
further 500 will be distributed via tourist
information centres and businesses with
significant international markets. The
international visitor survey will be
available in English, German, French,
Spanish, Japanese and Chinese.
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Contact Cumbria Tourism's Research
Team
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